Bitcoin faces a key turning point: 4-hour 15-minute moving average support analysis

In the digital currency market, the price fluctuation of Bitcoin has always been the focus of investors. As the market continues to change, technical analysis tools such as moving average (MA) have become an important basis for traders to judge market trends. Recently, Bitcoin tested the support level of the 15-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, which has attracted widespread attention in the market. This article will explore the meaning behind this phenomenon and possible market trends.

First of all, understanding the price fluctuations of Bitcoin is an important basis for analyzing its future trend. Since its birth in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced many sharp fluctuations, with its price soaring from a few cents to tens of thousands of dollars, attracting the attention of investors around the world. In this process, technical analysis methods have gradually been widely used, among which the moving average, as an important trend tracking tool, is often used to determine the support and resistance levels.

The moving average is used to smooth the price curve by calculating the average price over a period of time, thereby helping traders identify the trend direction. On the 4-hour chart, the support of the 15-period moving average is particularly important. It can reflect the price trajectory in the short term and help investors judge the strength of the current market. If the price of Bitcoin continues to be above this support level, market sentiment will be relatively optimistic; on the contrary, if the price falls below this support level, it may trigger a larger adjustment.

Specifically, the price of Bitcoin has recently fluctuated significantly when approaching this support level. Many investors choose to wait and see at this critical moment, and market sentiment is slightly cautious. According to historical data, similar technical patterns often indicate that the market is about to usher in a new wave of market conditions. In this case, traders need to pay close attention to changes in trading volume. If trading volume rises with price, it means that the market's buying power is strong, otherwise it may mean that selling pressure is increasing.

When analyzing the price trend of Bitcoin, we cannot ignore the fundamental factors of the market. Recently, the uncertainty of the global economic environment and the changes in the regulatory policies of various countries on digital currencies have had a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. For example, the tightening of regulatory policies on Bitcoin in some countries has caused market confidence to be hit and the price has fallen. However, at the same time, many countries have begun to actively explore the application of digital currencies, which provides potential positive factors for the long-term development of Bitcoin.

In addition, the structure of Bitcoin market participants is also changing. In recent years, the participation of institutional investors has increased significantly, and their capital inflows often have a significant impact on market prices. For example, a large investment company announced that it would include Bitcoin in its investment portfolio, which immediately triggered a strong reaction in the market and the price rose sharply in a short period of time. This phenomenon shows that market fluctuations are not only affected by retail investors, but the inflow of institutional funds is also constantly changing the market structure.

It is worth noting that technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not opposites, but can complement each other. When making trading decisions, investors should consider technical indicators and market news to improve the accuracy of their decisions. For example, when the price of Bitcoin approaches the 15-period moving average support level, investors can combine the fundamental dynamics of the market to determine whether it is necessary to buy or sell.

In the Bitcoin market, changes in sentiment often directly affect price trends. Investors' mood swings can be reflected through channels such as social media and online forums. When the market is generally optimistic about Bitcoin, there will often be a large number of buy orders, driving prices up; when market sentiment turns pessimistic, investors may sell in droves, causing prices to fall. Therefore, real-time tracking of market sentiment changes can help investors better seize market opportunities.

For short-term traders, it is crucial to understand the volatility characteristics of the market and the application of technical indicators. In the process of Bitcoin price testing the 15-period moving average support level, short-term traders can use this technical signal to make timely entry and exit operations. If the price rebounds near the support level, short-term traders can consider entering the market at the right time; if the price continues to decline, stop loss should be timely to control risks.

In general, the phenomenon of Bitcoin testing the 15-period moving average support on the 4-hour chart undoubtedly provides an important observation window for investors. By analyzing the technical indicators, fundamental factors and market sentiment behind this phenomenon, investors can better grasp the pulse of the market and make more rational trading decisions. Although market fluctuations are full of uncertainty, only in-depth analysis can find a foothold in the complex market environment.

As the digital currency market continues to develop, the future of Bitcoin is still full of opportunities and challenges. Investors need to maintain a keen sense of the market at all times and be good at using technical analysis tools and fundamental information to stay invincible in the ever-changing market. Facing the upcoming turning point, investors should not only pay attention to price fluctuations, but also understand the market logic behind them so as to make wise decisions at the right time.

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The day before yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the ascending triangle oscillation, but the upward explosion did not hold;
Yesterday, Bitcoin maintained a day of volatility and broke through the ascending triangle oscillation, but it also failed to hold;
Moreover, the momentum is gradually weakening. From the perspective of the short cycle, we can sense that this wave of upward momentum has become a spent force. It is no longer meaningful to pay too much attention to the bulls.
One of the reasons why the market did not surge or fall during the day yesterday was that the 50-day moving average has been in a flat state. Although the moving average is a follow-up indicator, judging from the rhythm of the moving average being crossed up and down, this is no longer a trending environment.
【Market Analysis】
Bitcoin Weekly Chart
Judging from the weekly chart, below the bull-bear watershed, Bitcoin tested upward in a volatile upward manner, and then broke the pressure-filled bull-bear watershed with a positive finger, followed by a series of kicks, creating today's high Bitcoin price.
This powerful breakthrough also occurred when it broke through the medium-term bull-bear watershed downward in November last year; but before the breakthrough last year, there was a large number of triangular convergence shocks, while this year, based on four months of sideways trading, a strong force burst out upward.
We all foresee that 2019 will be an extraordinary year, and we also know that the market will change in 2019, but what we did not expect is that it will come with such a strong attitude; if you only look at the fundamentals, you will believe that there will be such a magnificent upward wave so soon, and you can only look for some clues of the start through the technical side.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Since 2019, there have been two upward waves.
Before these two upward waves, there was an accumulation period; the first accumulation period lasted 4 months, and the second accumulation period was only one month.
The trend of the financial market, whether it is deliberately manipulated or unexpectedly bought up due to fundamental reasons, is history. The only thing we can't go back to is history, for example, we can't go back to 2011 when 1 bitcoin was 1 USD; what we can look forward to is the future. The past determines our present, and although it cannot be changed, the decisions made now can affect the future.
Then next, according to this model from "accumulation" to explosion, we need to wait for the next accumulation and look for opportunities in the next accumulation period.
Bitcoin four hours
In four hours, two key locations can be found.
The first is the horizontal support and resistance level in the chart, which can determine the short-term long and short forces;
The second is the 15-day moving average in the figure, which can determine whether this wave of rise has temporarily ended;
According to the bullish arrangement of moving averages, we should only maintain bullish thinking and not guess the top. If we want to focus on the short-term during the day, the 15-day moving average needs to remain intact and it needs to close above the support and resistance band to have a chance.
To sum up, the medium- and long-term opportunities for Bitcoin are around the medium-term bull-bear watershed. In the short term, it depends on the gains and losses of the four-hour 15-day moving average. If it can stay above the 15-day moving average, the bulls still have the momentum to attack upward. As long as it closes below the 15-day moving average, there will be a chance for a deeper correction downward.
Source: Tanxue Blockchain (public account)