In a recent fluctuation in the computing power of the Ethereum network, nearly 40% of the computing power of the entire network may suddenly disappear in April. This news has attracted the attention of the entire cryptocurrency industry. As an important blockchain platform, Ethereum’s dramatic fluctuations in its computing power will have a profound impact on the security and stability of the entire network. Next, we’ll delve into the implications and challenges this incident may raise.

The Ethereum network has always been famous for its powerful computing power and wide range of applications. However, recent data shows that April may usher in an unprecedented hash power reshuffle, and as much as 40% of the hash power may suddenly disappear. The news is shocking and has sparked concerns among industry insiders about the future of the Ethereum network.

According to analysis, the disappearance of computing power on this scale may be due to many factors. First, as mining difficulty increases and mining costs rise, some miners may choose to temporarily withdraw from the market, resulting in a large-scale reduction in computing power. Secondly, the global energy crisis and environmental protection pressure have also had a certain impact on mining behavior, forcing some mines to reduce the scale of operations or shut down equipment. Finally, the volatility and uncertainty of market conditions have also discouraged some miners from choosing to wait and see or exit the market, resulting in a rapid decline in computing power.

This large-scale disappearance of computing power will bring huge challenges and variables to the Ethereum network. First, the security of the network will be seriously threatened, and the risk of hacker attacks and 51% attacks will increase significantly. Secondly, the speed of transaction confirmation may be affected, and transaction congestion and delays may occur frequently. Finally, the overall stability and reliability of Ethereum will also be tested, and the network may face a period of instability.

Faced with this situation, the Ethereum community and core development team urgently need to take action to stabilize the network's computing power and ensure the security and stability of the network. First of all, an incentive mechanism can be considered to encourage miners to continue participating in mining and stabilize network computing power. Secondly, strengthen network monitoring and security protection, improve the network's ability to resist attacks, and ensure the security of user assets. Finally, strengthen communication and cooperation with miners and mining farms to jointly respond to challenges and jointly promote the development and growth of the network.

In general, the reshuffle of Ethereum’s computing power will be a severe test and an important opportunity. Only through the joint efforts and cooperation of the whole society can we meet the challenges and ensure the security and stability of the network. I believe that in the days to come, the Ethereum network will usher in new development opportunities and show a more powerful and stable state. May we work together to witness the bright future of the Ethereum network!

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After the Ethereum block height reached 9.840.000 (around April 9th), the popular Antminer E3
ASIC miners will not be able to run due to the increase in the size of the Ethereum DAG file. According to Kristy-Leigh
A recent study conducted by Minehan estimated that nearly 40% of Ethereum’s hashrate may come from E3 miners. There may be some changes as to the exact numbers, and we won't know until the event actually happens, but for the purposes of this article, let's stick with the topic.

what happens?

Before analyzing the impact of the hashrate decline, there are some important things to understand. I recommend that you take a look at the Ethereum mining page on EthHub. The bottom line is that Ethereum will have a difficulty measurement, which determines how difficult it will be to mine a block on the network. This adjustment is made as the hashrate value rises and falls, trying to keep the block time within a certain range.

When the computing power drops by 40%, the mining difficulty will drop to bring the block time back to the 13 seconds we are used to. This will take some time, and while I'm not sure exactly how long the adjustment will take, let's use 30 minutes as an estimate.

However, as ASIC miners exit the Ethereum network, previously unprofitable GPU miners will enter the network in their place. It’s hard to estimate how much of the lost computing power will be filled, but it should be a good amount.

To summarize the possible scenarios:

The computing power of the entire Ethereum network plummeted from 181.8 TH/s to 109.08 TH/s;

The difficulty starts to decrease;

More GPU miners are starting to come online;

The difficulty starts to rise again;

Block time goes back to about 13 seconds;

I think it's important to note that this can all happen basically in a split second. There is nothing stopping GPU miners from entering the network at block 9,840,000.

Is the Ethereum network at risk?

Question 1: What will happen if the computing power drops sharply?

One problem with the sudden drop in computing power is that malicious actors can enter this window (30 minutes?) and attack the network before the difficulty has adjusted sufficiently. The most likely way for this to happen is to rent computing power.

I don't know much about renting computing power, but there is a handy website that shows us the current cost of launching a 51% attack on any network.

The current cost of continuously attacking the Ethereum network for 24 hours is about $110,000. If we assume the worst case scenario: a 40% computing power drop, no more GPU miners entering the network, and an hour of time spent Adjustment, then the cost of conducting an attack during this 1 hour period would drop to $66,000.

For comparison, the cost of attacking the network when the computing power of the entire network was reduced in early 2019 was approximately US$80,000.

It is important to note that the above cost calculations assume that you can obtain sufficient computing power. However, the actual situation is that the computing power that can be rented on Nicehash currently only accounts for about 4% of the computing power of the entire network.

Question 2: Will other ASIC miners fill the gap?

Another question I see is, after the E3 miner becomes a brick, will there be better and more efficient ASIC miners?

To me, this presents a risk that is difficult to quantify and understand.

Has this happened before?

Ethereum has also experienced a significant decline in computing power, although the decline did not occur in a short period of time.

What should we do?

The above is just a collection of different arguments that I have seen. What follows is my opinion.

This sudden drop in computing power has nothing to do with me. In fact, I find that the slow and continuous decline in computing power is more worthy of attention. The reason is that it gives malicious actors more time (e.g. weeks) to coordinate the attack. The window for this incident was very short, and while it was known, I don't know what would have motivated someone to do the attack at that moment, when in fact the hash rate has declined and rewards have been cut over the past 18 months. In this case, the attack is easier to implement. Even in the worst-case scenario, where no other miners join the network immediately, we are only talking about a $12,000 difference compared to the beginning of 2019. To me, if someone wants to 51% attack Ethereum, it doesn’t make much difference whether the event happens or not.

I don't know where this computing power comes from. One of the reasons why we don't see 51% attacks is game theory. Is there any point in burning your invested (ETH) to attack the blockchain for 1 hour? So far, the answer seems to be no. We also just went through the lengthy ProgPoW debate, where one side kept saying that GPU miners would not attack the Ethereum blockchain. Since most computing power is not rentable and ASIC miners are stripped off the network, where does this attack computing power come from?

Some people worry that better ASIC miners will be built and used. I don't see how this has anything specifically to do with the DAG problem. If the ASIC miners could make a better chip, they would have it by now, there is no reason for them to wait until the DAG issues arise before launching it. I'm not saying better ASIC miners can't happen, I just don't think it's relevant to this specific issue. I've made it clear in the past that I don't care where Ethereum's computing power comes from. This issue simply rehashes the ProgPoW debate and is not about the impending decline in computing power.

All in all, it seems like this will be a scenario where existing mechanisms come into play and the mining market will take care of the rest.

Nonetheless, I would welcome more analysis of the issues raised above.