The future after the exodus of Bitcoin miners: Can Bitcoin prices regain their glory?

In the past period of time, the exodus of Bitcoin miners has attracted widespread attention. This phenomenon not only reflects the survival of miners, but also lays various hidden dangers for the future development of Bitcoin. After a series of fluctuations, many people began to wonder: Can the price of Bitcoin reach its peak again? This article will explore this topic in depth, analyzing the current situation of Bitcoin miners, market changes and future possibilities from multiple perspectives.

First of all, we need to understand the background of the exodus of Bitcoin miners. In recent years, with the increase in the difficulty of Bitcoin mining and the soaring electricity costs, many small miners are facing tremendous survival pressure. Taking China as an example, in 2019, Chinese Bitcoin miners once occupied more than 70% of the global market. However, as the government increased its supervision of cryptocurrencies, many mines were forced to close and miners fled. In addition, the rise in electricity prices and the intensification of market competition have caused many miners' profits to shrink significantly, and they eventually chose to withdraw.

Against this background, the fluctuation of Bitcoin prices has become more and more intense. According to data, the price of Bitcoin once exceeded $60,000 in 2021, but then fell back to around $30,000. This drastic fluctuation not only makes investors uneasy, but also makes the living environment of miners more difficult. Faced with such a market environment, many miners chose to transform and turn to mining other cryptocurrencies, or directly withdraw from mining and invest in other fields.

Although the exodus of miners has triggered a series of market fluctuations, the long-term value of Bitcoin is still attracting attention. As a decentralized digital currency, Bitcoin has huge potential for blockchain technology. Many experts believe that although Bitcoin prices may face pressure in the short term, in the long run, Bitcoin still has the basis for rising.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's underlying technology, blockchain, has the characteristics of being tamper-proof, transparent and secure. This makes Bitcoin's application prospects in the financial field broad. Many companies and financial institutions have begun to explore the inclusion of Bitcoin in their own business systems. For example, Tesla once announced that it would accept Bitcoin as a means of payment. Although this policy was later suspended due to environmental issues, this move undoubtedly provided new ideas for the application of Bitcoin.

At the same time, with the digital transformation of the global economy, more and more investors are beginning to pay attention to Bitcoin as an asset. According to data from market research institutions, the number of Bitcoin holders worldwide has exceeded 50 million in 2023. This phenomenon shows that despite many challenges, Bitcoin still attracts the attention of a large number of investors. Investors hope to achieve asset preservation and appreciation through Bitcoin, which provides strong support for the future development of Bitcoin.

Of course, in addition to market demand, changes in regulatory policies are also an important factor affecting Bitcoin prices. In some countries, the government's supervision of cryptocurrencies has continued to increase, leading to market fluctuations. However, on the other hand, many countries have also begun to gradually accept and regulate the cryptocurrency market. For example, El Salvador became the first country to use Bitcoin as legal tender, a move that has attracted widespread attention around the world. Many analysts believe that as more and more countries begin to accept Bitcoin, its price is expected to rise again in the future.

Against this backdrop, we also need to pay attention to Bitcoin's supply chain. The total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million pieces, and this scarcity makes Bitcoin have a certain value support in the long run. As mining gradually decreases, the speed of generating new Bitcoins is also slowing down, which means that the value of Bitcoin may rise in the future due to changes in supply and demand.

However, despite the promising future of Bitcoin, we cannot ignore the potential risks. Market volatility, technical security, and changes in regulatory policies may have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. For example, a security vulnerability in a large exchange in 2022 led to the theft of millions of dollars in Bitcoin, causing huge losses to investors. The occurrence of such incidents not only affects market confidence, but also makes people doubt the security of Bitcoin.

In such a market environment, as investors, we should remain rational and rationally view the investment value of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has certain potential for growth, investors also need to do a good job of risk control to avoid unnecessary losses due to market fluctuations. At the same time, as the market continues to mature, investors should also pay attention to Bitcoin's technological progress and market changes to find the right time to invest.

Overall, although the exodus of Bitcoin miners has caused a certain impact on the market in the short term, in the long run, the future of Bitcoin is still worth looking forward to. With the advancement of technology, the maturity of the market, and the improvement of regulatory policies, Bitcoin is expected to usher in new development opportunities. Despite many challenges, as long as investors remain rational, they can find their place in this market full of opportunities.

Finally, we need to think about that as an emerging digital asset, the value of Bitcoin lies not only in the volatility of its market price, but also in the technological innovation and financial concepts behind it. No matter how the price of Bitcoin changes in the future, we should pay attention to the value behind it and look at the development of this emerging market rationally. As long as we can seize opportunities and respond to challenges rationally, the future of Bitcoin will be brighter.

The four most famous international exchanges:

Binance INTL	OKX INTL	Gate.io INTL	Huobi INTL
China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL

Note: The above exchange logo is the official website registration link, and the text is the APP download link.

Mining difficulty could be a predictor of BTC prices. Cryptocurrency researcher PlanB
says that the three major bull runs in Bitcoin’s history all started after mining difficulty hit bottom, which means that the market could see a strong uptrend this year.

Using mining difficulty to predict a Bitcoin bull run

Although the cryptocurrency market is known for its extremely high volatility, its market moves in cycles. Cryptocurrency analysts use a variety of different tools and factors to predict the duration of each cycle and the different factors that affect market movements.

Moving averages are a favorite analysis tool among analysts because they provide fairly accurate predictions of major price increases. However, cryptocurrency researcher, PlanB
found a different method that can more accurately predict Bitcoin price movements.

In a Twitter stream, the researcher explained how the past three Bitcoin bull runs started when mining difficulty hit bottom.

He explained that each time mining difficulty reached an all-time high, Bitcoin’s price fell sharply and continued to fall until a large portion of miners became unprofitable. When the price of Bitcoin began to rise and competition intensified, many miners could no longer run their hardware, forcing them to give up.

It is speculated that the price of Bitcoin is driven up by profitable miners

When miners leave the network, the hashrate decreases. Soon after the hashrate drops, the difficulty of mining adjusts accordingly.

Over the past 10 years, every time Bitcoin’s mining difficulty has hit a bottom, a major bull run has followed. The chart shared on Twitter shows that the hashrate has bottomed out in early 2012, Q2 2015, and

in late 2019.

The chart also shows that the drop in mining difficulty occurs every 3-4 years, or when about 20,000 blocks have been generated since the last bottom in mining difficulty was reached.

While there is no guarantee that this market cycle will replicate the previous two cycles, if it does, it means that the price of Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high. Based on the low-high trend shown in the graph, Bitcoin’s next “highest point” could be 1,000-2,000% higher than the price at the lowest mining difficulty in this cycle.

Since Bitcoin’s price hovered around $3,500 at the end of last year, at a 100% mining difficulty, this would mean that its price could reach $35,000 to $75,000 in the next few years.

After a Twitter user pointed this out, PlanB said that this is actually a fairly conservative estimate. He explained that the last two “all-time highs” Bitcoin reached after miners fled, the price rose by about 100 times.

That said, PlanB’s analysis could be completely wrong. Several mining experts told CryptoSlate that mining difficulty is a lagging indicator, not a predictor of Bitcoin’s price. As BTC prices rise or fall, mining difficulty adjusts accordingly, not the other way around. Therefore, the two are closely correlated, and PlanB’s reasoning about the direction of causality between the two is likely questionable.