Bitcoin rebounds, futures market remains sluggish

Recently, Bitcoin has experienced a significant rebound, with prices gradually recovering amid market fluctuations and regaining investors' attention. However, despite the excellent performance of Bitcoin's spot market, the futures market still appears weak and fails to keep up with the pace of the spot market. At the same time, on-chain data also shows that miners are still selling their Bitcoins, and the supply and demand relationship in the market is constantly changing. This phenomenon has caused many investors to think about what exactly caused the sluggish futures market and the deep-seated reasons behind miners' selling behavior.

When analyzing the reasons for the rebound in Bitcoin prices, we must first pay attention to changes in the global economic situation. As the COVID-19 pandemic gradually eases, the economies of various countries gradually recover, and investors' risk appetite has increased. Against this background, Bitcoin, as a digital asset, has attracted a large amount of capital inflows due to its safe-haven properties. According to market analysis, many institutional investors have begun to increase their allocation to Bitcoin, believing that it has huge room for appreciation in the future.

However, despite the recovery of the spot market, the futures market remains sluggish. This is closely related to the trading characteristics of Bitcoin futures contracts. Futures trading is usually used to hedge risks, but when market sentiment is unstable, investors tend to be more inclined to wait and see rather than take the initiative. This wait-and-see sentiment has led to a decline in trading volume in the futures market and weak trading volume, which has affected the price trend.

On the other hand, the analysis of chain data shows that miners are still selling Bitcoin, which has also attracted the attention of the market. Miners sell Bitcoin for a variety of reasons, the first of which is to cover operating costs. As the difficulty of Bitcoin mining increases, miners need to invest more resources and time to maintain profitability, which forces them to sell their Bitcoin to a certain extent. In addition, the volatility of the market also makes miners choose to sell some Bitcoin to reduce risks when facing uncertainty.

When discussing the selling behavior of miners, another important factor is market psychology. As part of the market, the behavior of miners is often affected by market sentiment. When the market fluctuates, miners may have doubts about future price trends and choose to sell to lock in profits. Such behavior not only reflects the decision-making logic of miners, but also affects the supply and demand relationship in the market to a certain extent.

It is worth noting that although the behavior of miners selling Bitcoin has caused market pressure to a certain extent, it does not mean that the long-term trend of Bitcoin will be seriously affected. In fact, many analysts believe that the current market adjustment is healthy and will help clean up irrational investors in the market, thereby laying the foundation for subsequent increases.

Against the backdrop of Bitcoin's recovery, the weakness in the futures market has also caused many investors to think. For investors who hope to gain profits through futures trading, it is particularly important to make wise decisions in the current market environment. On the one hand, investors need to pay attention to changes in the macroeconomic situation and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner; on the other hand, understanding the supply and demand relationship in the market, especially the behavior of miners, is crucial to grasping market dynamics.

In this context, investors should also pay attention to the combination of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Through technical analysis of Bitcoin price trends, investors can identify potential buy and sell signals. At the same time, combined with the analysis of on-chain data, the supply and demand relationship in the market can be better understood, so as to make more rational decisions.

There are different voices in the market about the future trend of Bitcoin. Some analysts believe that with the continuous entry of institutional investors, Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise in the future; while other analysts are concerned about the short-term fluctuations in the market, believing that the current price recovery may only be a short-term phenomenon. In any case, market changes are always full of uncertainty, and investors need to remain vigilant and adjust their investment strategies at any time to cope with possible risks.

In such a market environment, the mentality of investors is particularly important. In the face of market fluctuations, staying calm and making rational analyses will help you find your foothold in the complex market. As an emerging asset, the investment value of Bitcoin is not only reflected in short-term price fluctuations, but also in its potential role as a digital currency in the future economy.

Finally, for Bitcoin investors, understanding the dynamic changes in the market, paying attention to on-chain data, and combining technical analysis with fundamental analysis will help find investment opportunities in a complex and changing market environment. In this era full of opportunities and challenges, only by constantly learning and adapting can you remain invincible in Bitcoin investment. No matter how the market changes, maintaining confidence in the future and keen insight into the market will be the key to investors' success.

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Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $30,000 support again on the 20th of this month, hitting $29,301 at one point, and then rebounded. It rose to $32,825 in the early morning of this day (22), with a 24-hour increase of 10.75%. It was reported at $31,991 before press time.

Despite the recovery of the $32,000 price, according to foreign media "NewsBTC", the performance of on-chain data is still not optimistic. The chart of the data tracking platform CryptoQuant shows that on the 20th of this month, a large number of Bitcoin miners flowed out. The total outflow on that day was about 11,816 BTC, the highest since May, when the price of the currency plummeted by nearly 50%.

Although this indicator only represents how much Bitcoin miners have transferred, it cannot be determined how much Bitcoin has actually been sold, but its rise does mean that the selling pressure has increased, which may affect the market price.

Further examination of the average Bitcoin flow from all miners to exchanges shows that it has been maintained at a high level for some time, and also surged on July 20, breaking through 80BTC, and exceeded 89BTC the next day (21), slightly lower than the high of 98BTC a few days ago.

Futures and options markets are bearish

At the same time, derivative indicators also tend to be bearish.

According to a column report by CoinTelegraph today, Marcel Pechman, who worked as a trader for 18 years at UBS and Deutsche Bank and entered the cryptocurrency market in 2017, pointed out that the premium (also known as basis) of Bitcoin futures contracts was -2.5% for more than 12 hours for the first time on July 20.

The basis measures the difference between the monthly futures contract and the current spot market price. The neutral ratio value is usually between 7% and 15% annualized; but when the premium space fades or becomes negative, it is a very bearish situation, called backwardation.

In the options market, which has both long and short parties, the open interest on the put side continues to rise.

Call options provide buyers with upside price protection, allowing them to purchase Bitcoin at an agreed price in the future; while put options are the right to sell Bitcoin at an agreed price in the future, and are usually used in neutral to bearish strategies.

An increase in the put/call ratio is usually interpreted as a negative signal. Currently, the indicator is around 0.66. Although there are still more calls, they are gradually losing ground. Veteran trader Pechman concluded: "There is enough evidence to show that the futures and options markets are bearish, and this has not been the case in the past two months. This means that even professional traders lack confidence after failing to maintain the $30,000 support level in the past 48 hours."