Is the Bitcoin bull market over? Uncovering the ten major indicators of a bull market

In the world of digital currencies, Bitcoin is undoubtedly the brightest star. Since its birth in 2009, its price has experienced countless fluctuations, attracting the attention of investors around the world. Faced with the recent market fluctuations, many people began to wonder: Is the bull market of Bitcoin over? In this article, we will explore in depth the ten indicators for judging the bull market, helping readers understand the current situation and future of the Bitcoin market from multiple perspectives.

First of all, to determine whether the Bitcoin bull market has ended, we must understand the basic characteristics of a bull market. A bull market usually means that the market is generally optimistic, investors are confident, and prices continue to rise. However, a bull market is not static, and it is affected by many factors, including market sentiment, external environment, technical indicators, etc. In this article, we will analyze these ten indicators in detail to help you better grasp the pulse of the market.

1. Market Sentiment Indicators

Market sentiment is one of the important indicators for judging a bull market. Usually, a bull market is accompanied by positive market sentiment, and investors are generally optimistic. Sentiment indicators such as the "Fear and Greed Index" can provide us with a quantitative reference. The index fluctuates between 0 and 100, with 0 representing extreme fear and 100 representing extreme greed. When the index is above 70, it usually means that the market is overheated and the bull market may be coming to an end; while below 30 indicates market panic, it may be a good time to buy.

For example, at the beginning of 2021, as the price of Bitcoin broke through $40,000, market sentiment quickly heated up, the Fear and Greed Index reached a high of 90, and investors rushed to chase the rise. However, as the price fell back, the index also fell rapidly, and panic began to appear in the market. This change reminds us that the end of the bull market is often accompanied by drastic fluctuations in emotions.

2. Changes in trading volume

In the history of Bitcoin, we can see that in the bull market at the end of 2017, the trading volume reached an unprecedented peak, and many new investors poured into the market. However, as the price fell back, the trading volume also decreased, and the market gradually cooled down. Therefore, observing the changes in trading volume can help us judge the health of the bull market.

3. Technical indicator analysis

Technical analysis is an important tool for investors to judge market trends. In Bitcoin trading, some commonly used technical indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average (MA) can provide overbought or oversold signals in the market.

For example, an RSI value of more than 70 usually means that the market has entered the overbought zone and the price may pull back. When the RSI value is less than 30, the market may be in an oversold state, and the possibility of a rebound increases. In 2021, Bitcoin's RSI broke through 70 several times, followed by a price pullback. The use of this technical indicator allows investors to analyze the market more rationally and avoid blindly chasing the rise.

4. Capital Inflow and Outflow

Observing the inflow and outflow of funds is also an important basis for judging the bull market. During the bull market, funds usually show a net inflow, and investors actively buy Bitcoin. At the end of the bull market, the outflow of funds is obvious, investors begin to sell, and market sentiment turns pessimistic.

For example, in 2018, the price of Bitcoin peaked at nearly $20,000, but then funds began to flow out, causing the price to fall sharply. This phenomenon reminds us that changes in capital flows can directly reflect the health of the market.

5. Changes in large investor positions

In the Bitcoin market, the behavior of large investors (investors who hold a large amount of Bitcoin) has an important impact on price fluctuations. If large investors start to sell their Bitcoin, it often means a change in market sentiment and the bull market may face pressure. On the contrary, if large investors continue to increase their holdings, it may indicate that the market is still optimistic.

In 2020, the holdings of Bitcoin majors continued to increase, market sentiment was optimistic, and prices rose accordingly. However, as some major investors began to reduce their holdings, the market experienced a correction. This change made us realize that paying attention to the changes in the holdings of major investors can provide us with important market signals.

6. Social media popularity

For example, when the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed, related topics frequently appeared on hot searches on platforms such as Twitter and Reddit, attracting a lot of attention. However, when the market began to pull back, the popularity of these topics also declined. This phenomenon provides us with a reference for judging the end of the bull market.

7. Altcoin Performance

Although Bitcoin is the market leader, the performance of other competing coins (such as Ethereum, Ripple, etc.) can also provide us with important clues. During bull markets, Bitcoin usually outperforms other competing coins, and at the end of the bull market, the performance of competing coins may quickly catch up or even surpass Bitcoin.

In 2021, when Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high, Ethereum and other altcoins also saw considerable gains. This phenomenon shows that the market's enthusiasm is not limited to Bitcoin, and the performance of altcoins can also reflect changes in market sentiment.

8. Market adjustment cycle

Bull markets are often accompanied by a certain period of adjustment. When the market experiences a rapid rise, adjustments are inevitable. This adjustment usually manifests itself as a short-term price correction, but if the adjustment is too large, it may mean the end of the bull market.

In past Bitcoin bull markets, prices often experienced corrections after reaching highs. For example, in late 2017, Bitcoin prices fell from nearly $20,000 to $6,000, a dramatic fluctuation that panicked many investors. Observing the magnitude and frequency of market adjustments can help us determine the sustainability of the bull market.

9. Changes in the policy environment

For example, in 2021, the Chinese government once again stepped up its crackdown on Bitcoin mining, causing sharp market fluctuations. This policy change reminds us that investors need to pay close attention to changes in the policy environment to judge the prospects of the bull market.

10. Long-term trend analysis

Finally, from the perspective of long-term trends, whether Bitcoin is in a bull market or not still needs to be analyzed in combination with historical data. Bitcoin price fluctuations have shown obvious cyclicality in history, and investors can judge future trends by analyzing historical data.

For example, since the birth of Bitcoin, its price has experienced several rounds of bull and bear market cycles. This periodicity provides an important reference for investors. By analyzing historical prices, investors can better grasp the pulse of the market.

The four most famous international exchanges:

Binance INTL	OKX INTL	Gate.io INTL	Huobi INTL
China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL

Note: The above exchange logo is the official website registration link, and the text is the APP download link.

Bitcoin's recent bullishness has rapidly faded. Investors who want to understand what stage the current market is in can observe 10 indicators to make judgments. These indicators have correctly predicted the peak of the last round of Bitcoin's bull market.
 1. Number of Google searches
According to historical data, the number of searches for Bitcoin will surge at the peak of the bubble, and the search volume in a new bull market will increase exponentially compared to the previous round. The current cycle has not yet exceeded the peak of the previous bull market.
 2. The golden ratio of 51% and 49%
The focus of this indicator is the bull market cycle. The previous rounds of bull markets have one thing in common: the stage from the bottom to the halving accounts for 51% of the entire bull market cycle, while the remaining stages (from halving to the top) account for 49%.
At present, starting from the low point in 2018, the market has gone through the 51% stage and the halving in May 2020. It has been up and down all the way to June 2021, and there are still a few months to go before the entire 49% stage is completed. Therefore, it can be judged that the bull market is not over yet.
 3. Two-year MA multiplier indicator
This indicator is often used to observe tops and bottoms, and can determine in which periods buying and selling Bitcoin can obtain huge returns and whether it is suitable for long-term investment.
 4. Bitcoin Rainbow Band
This is a way to look at long-term price movements that ignores the noise of daily fluctuations and follows a logarithmic regression. It can also be used to decide when to sell or accumulate Bitcoin.
 5. NUPL indicator
Refers to unrealized net profit/loss. It determines whether the funds in the current market are in a floating loss or floating profit state based on the time of on-chain transactions, and then calculates the difference between unrealized profit and unrealized loss.
 6. Puell Multiple indicator
The calculation is to divide the daily token issuance rate by the 365-day moving average of this value, looking for market cycles from the income of Bitcoin miners. Miners are sometimes called forced sellers because they need to pay the fixed costs of mining hardware in a market with extremely volatile prices. Therefore, their income will affect the price to some extent over time.
7. MVRV indicator
It can be used to measure whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued. The current MVRV index is still far from its peak.
8. MVRV indicator
This indicator can identify the price highs of each previous macro cycle of Bitcoin, and can accurately determine the market top within a few days, helping investors seize cyclical profit opportunities.
 9. Reserve Risk
By measuring the risk and return to determine the timing of entry and exit, it can be used to reflect the confidence of long-term holders in Bitcoin at certain moments. When confidence is high and the price is low, the return of investing in Bitcoin is attractive; when confidence is low and the price is high, investing in Bitcoin requires higher risks. Currently, the reserve risk index is in the middle.
 10. S2F model
Represents the relationship between stock and output. Stock refers to the number of bitcoins that have been mined, and output refers to the number of bitcoins produced each year. The formula is: S2F = stock/output.

Trading volume is another key indicator. When a bull market continues, trading volume usually increases significantly, indicating that market participants are more active. Conversely, if a bull market ends, trading volume tends to shrink and investors' enthusiasm for participation decreases.

The popularity of social media reflects the public's attention to Bitcoin. During a bull market, discussions about Bitcoin on social media tend to increase significantly, and investors are enthusiastic. At the end of a bull market, the popularity of social media discussions may decline, and investors' interest will wane.

The price fluctuation of Bitcoin is also closely related to the policy environment. When governments adopt friendly policies towards digital currencies, it usually promotes the prosperity of the market; if the policy is tightened, it may lead to a cooling of the market.