As the countdown to Bitcoin’s halving enters its final 100 days, the cryptocurrency market is once again focused on this important event. Bitcoin's halving phenomenon refers to the halving of Bitcoin mining rewards. This mechanism is designed to control the supply of Bitcoin, thereby affecting its price. Historical data shows that every Bitcoin halving has triggered market volatility and concern. This article will take stock of the historical price changes of Bitcoin in the past three halvings, and explore its impact on the market and possible future trends.

The price fluctuation of Bitcoin has always been the focus of market attention, and the Bitcoin halving is a key event that directly affects the confidence and behavior of market participants. The first Bitcoin halving occurred in November 2012, when the price of Bitcoin quickly rose from a few dollars to over $200. This dramatic price fluctuation aroused heated discussion in the market and attracted more investors' attention and capital inflows. The scarcity and value of Bitcoin are gradually recognized by the market, and the price continues to rise.

The second Bitcoin halving occurred in July 2016, and the market responded more maturely to this halving. Bitcoin prices fluctuated less before and after the halving, but gradually increased over time, eventually breaking through the $1,000 mark. This halving shows the market’s gradual acceptance and recognition of Bitcoin, and investors have begun to regard Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset and investment target.

The third Bitcoin halving occurred in May 2020, and the market was fully prepared before this time. The price of Bitcoin experienced a slight rise before the halving, but then ushered in the impact of the epidemic and global market turmoil, and the price experienced a certain degree of correction. However, as the global economy gradually recovered and the cryptocurrency market became active, Bitcoin prices began to rise again, surpassing the all-time high price. This halving shows that Bitcoin’s status as a safe-haven asset and digital gold is gradually recognized by the market.

It can be seen from the price changes of previous Bitcoin halvings that the market's response to Bitcoin has gradually become more rational and mature. As an emerging asset, Bitcoin's price fluctuates greatly, but it shows an overall upward trend. As the Bitcoin market continues to develop and mature, investors' recognition and acceptance of Bitcoin has gradually increased, and its status as a safe-haven asset and digital gold has gradually stabilized.

In future Bitcoin halvings, the market may treat this event more rationally, and price fluctuations may be smoother and more predictable. As the cryptocurrency market continues to develop and the regulatory environment gradually improves, Bitcoin's status as an emerging asset will become more solid. Investors need to remain rational and cautious when participating in the Bitcoin market, and grasp the pulse and trends of the market in order to obtain better investment returns.

The 100-day countdown to Bitcoin’s halving is not only a market event, but also a test and challenge to the cryptocurrency market. Investors need to remain vigilant and rational, grasp the rhythm and rules of the market, and gain profits from market fluctuations. The future of Bitcoin is full of uncertainties and challenges, but it is also full of opportunities and potential. Let us look forward to the future of Bitcoin and witness the development and growth of the cryptocurrency market.

The four most famous international exchanges:

Binance INTL	OKX INTL	Gate.io INTL	Huobi INTL
China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL

Note: The above exchange logo is the official website registration link, and the text is the APP download link.

Coin Circle (120bTC.coM): With the smooth launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is the fourth halving that is expected to arrive in mid-April this year. According to Bitcoin
BlockHalf’s latest data, as of press time, is that there are only about 100 days left before the Bitcoin halving. At that time, the Bitcoin reward per block will be reduced from the current 6.25 to 3.125.

100 days left until Bitcoin halving

 Reviewing the past halving market

The background for Bitcoin’s halving to become a bull market narrative is that scarcity will increase, so it is considered by the market to help push up the price of the currency. However, according to statistics, in the past, after halving, it usually did not immediately trigger an increase in Bitcoin’s price. It took several Fermentation time: months to a year and a half:

   The first halving: In 2012, about 12 months after the peak (November 2013), the currency price increased by 8450%

   The second halving: In 2016, about 17 months after the peak (December 2017), the currency price rose by 290%

   The third halving: In 2019, about 18 months after the peak (November 2021), the currency price rose by 560%

Past halving prices

Is every Bitcoin rise really related to the halving? Coinbase analyst David
Duong has previously written a report summarizing the background of the past three halvings of Bitcoin, pointing out that the Bitcoin halving events happened to coincide with some important historical monetary and fiscal policies:

   In 2012, the Federal Reserve began purchasing mortgage-backed securities and long-term Treasury bonds for the third round of quantitative easing (QE3).

   In the second half of 2016, Brexit triggered fiscal concerns in the EU and UK, leading to increased BTC purchases.

   In 2020, central banks and governments responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, which pushed up global liquidity.

Therefore, he believes that in addition to paying attention to the supply and demand dynamics of BTC, investors must also clearly understand the market background and need to understand the impact of US dollar trends, interest rates and global liquidity.

“With the exception of the third halving, the evidence supporting Bitcoin price action from these halving events is not entirely clear.”

 VanEck Analyst: Bitcoin will reach new highs by the end of this year

VanEck analysts estimated in December that the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, coupled with the halving event, would spur Bitcoin to hit a record high in the fourth quarter of this year.

As you can see from the figure below, VanEck defines Bitcoin’s fourth cycle as 2022–2025, and divides it into 3 situations (Low, Moderate, Bullish). In Bullish (bull market), VanEck estimates that Bitcoin will reach 16 million dollar cycle peak.

But it will take time to prove whether history can really repeat itself. Investors are reminded to ensure risk control.