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Four key indicators reflect professional traders’ extreme bullis
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Date:2024-06-02 18:04:56 Channel:Build Read:
In the current financial market, cryptocurrency has become one of the hot topics that has attracted much attention. In particular, Bitcoin, as one of the most representative cryptocurrencies, has attracted the attention of countless investors and traders with its price fluctuations. In this context, four key indicators reflect professional traders' extreme bullishness on Bitcoin. Let's uncover the stories behind these indicators.
Market sentiment indicators:
One of the first indicators that professional traders are bullish on Bitcoin is market sentiment. Market sentiment fluctuates like the rising tide of the sea, sometimes enthusiastic and sometimes depressed. Recently, as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, the market sentiment index has also soared. On social media, the discussion about Bitcoin has gradually increased, and investors have expressed their bullish attitude towards Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, and this optimism has spread in the market, forming a powerful driving force.
Technical analysis indicators:
In addition to market sentiment, professional traders also pay close attention to technical analysis indicators. Through technical analysis of Bitcoin price trends, they can grasp market changes more accurately. Recent technical analysis shows that Bitcoin price trends have shown a clear upward trend, and various technical indicators have issued buy signals. Professional traders have adjusted their trading strategies based on the results of technical analysis and seized every trading opportunity.
Fundamental analysis indicators:
In addition, fundamental analysis is also one of the focuses of professional traders. As a digital currency, the value of Bitcoin is affected by many factors. Recently, the global recognition of Bitcoin has been increasing, and major institutions have expressed their support for the development of cryptocurrencies, which has added a lot of positive factors to the future of Bitcoin. Professional traders have strengthened their confidence in Bitcoin's bullishness by deeply analyzing the fundamentals of Bitcoin.
Quantitative trading indicators:
Finally, quantitative trading indicators are also a must-have tool for professional traders. Through the establishment and optimization of quantitative models, they can make trading decisions more scientifically, reduce risks, and increase returns. Recently, professional traders have made considerable profits in the Bitcoin market through quantitative trading strategies, which further strengthened their confidence in Bitcoin's bullishness. The intelligence and automation of quantitative trading have brought more trading opportunities to professional traders, allowing them to better grasp the pulse of the market.
In summary, the four key indicators reflect professional traders' extreme bullishness on Bitcoin. The enthusiasm of market sentiment, the support of technical analysis, the favorable fundamentals and the advantages of quantitative trading have made professional traders full of confidence in the future of Bitcoin. As an emerging digital asset, Bitcoin has great potential and is attracting more and more investors and traders. In the ever-changing market, professional traders rely on their experience and wisdom to continuously explore innovative trading strategies to help Bitcoin continue to rise and open up a more brilliant future. May we all seize opportunities and achieve wealth growth in this era of digital currency!
The four most famous international exchanges:
Binance INTL
OKX INTL
Gate.io INTL
Huobi INTL
China Line APP DL China Line APP DL
China Line APP DL
China Line APP DL
Note: The above exchange logo is the official website registration link, and the text is the APP download link.
Key derivatives indicators show that professional traders remain bullish on Bitcoin even as the price of Bitcoin continues to be rejected at $19,800.
Most investors who follow Bitcoin will have heard recently about the increasing influence of the Bitcoin futures and options markets on the price of Bitcoin. The same is true of price fluctuations caused by clearing on exchanges.
Given that the derivatives market now plays a larger role in Bitcoin price fluctuations, it becomes increasingly necessary to evaluate some of the key indicators that professional traders use to measure market activity.
While evaluating futures and options contracts can be quite complex, the average retail investor can still benefit from understanding how to properly interpret the futures premium, funding rate, skew of options, and put/call ratio.
Futures Premium
The futures premium measures the price of a long-term futures contract relative to the current spot in traditional markets. It can be viewed as a relative reflection of investor optimism, with futures tending to trade at a slightly higher premium than the spot exchange price.
In a healthy market, the premium for two-month futures should be between 0.8% and 2.3%, with any number above this range indicating extreme optimism. Meanwhile, no premium for futures indicates that investors are bearish.
This past week has been a rollercoaster, with the contango indicator hitting 2% on November 24th, just as Bitcoin peaked at $19,434.
Although the current contango is 1.1%, more importantly, despite a 14% drop, this indicator has remained above 0.8%. Generally, investors view this level as bullish, and yesterday we could see Bitcoin hit a new high of over $19,900.
Perpetual Futures Contract Funding Rate
Perpetual futures contract funding is usually charged every eight hours. Funding rates ensure that there is no risk of trading imbalances. Even if the positions of buyers and sellers are always consistent, leverage may vary.
When buyers (longs) use more leverage, the funding rate becomes positive. Therefore, these buyers will pay higher fees. This issue is particularly important during bull markets, which are usually characterized by stronger long demand.
A funding rate of more than 2% per week indicates extreme optimism. This level is acceptable during a rising market, but it is problematic if Bitcoin price is trending sideways or down.
In this case, high leverage on the buy side brings the potential for large liquidations during unexpected price drops.
Note that despite the recent bull run, the weekly funding rate has remained below 2%. This data shows that buyers are not over-leveraged despite the optimism of traders. Similarly, during the $1,400 drop on November 26, this indicator remained at a healthy neutral level.
Option skew
Unlike futures contracts, options are divided into two parts. A call option allows the buyer to buy Bitcoin at a fixed price on the expiration date. On the other hand, the seller of the option will be obligated to sell Bitcoin.
25% delta of options
Skew compares equivalent call (buy) and put (sell) options. If it is more expensive to use a call option to protect against price increases, the skew indicator will shift into negative range. The opposite is true when investors are bearish, causing put options to trade at a premium, resulting in a positive shift in the skew indicator.
Oscillations between -15% (slightly bullish) to +15% (slightly bearish) are typical and expected. It is very unusual for most markets to remain flat or close to zero most of the time.
Therefore, traders should monitor for more extreme situations as they may indicate that market makers are unwilling to take risk on either side.
The above chart shows that options traders have been reluctant to open short positions since November 5. Therefore, traders will consider this to be a very bullish situation.
Put/Call Ratio
By measuring whether more trades are being made through buying or selling options, it is possible to tell the sentiment of the entire market. Generally speaking, calls are used for bullish strategies and puts are used for bearish strategies.
A put-to-call ratio of 0.70 indicates that open puts are 30% less than calls, so it is bullish.
In contrast, a put-to-call ratio of 1.2 indicates that open puts are 20% more than calls, which can be considered bearish. One thing to note is that this metric combines the entire Bitcoin options market.
In the current situation in the market, it is natural for investors to seek downside protection as Bitcoin surpasses $19,000, although the put/call ratio is well below its six-month average of 0.90. The current level of 0.64 shows that professional traders are not pessimistic.
Overall, the four key indicators remain stable, especially considering that the market just suffered a traumatic correction that saw Bitcoin price fall to $16,200.
With the Bitcoin price once again surpassing $19,500, almost all investors are wondering if Bitcoin has enough strength to break its all-time high this week, and from a derivatives trading perspective, there is nothing that can stop it.
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