In the digital currency market, Bitcoin has always been the focus of attention. Recent data shows that the probability of Bitcoin price breaking through 10,000 yuan in June is only 16%, which has aroused widespread attention and heated discussion in the market. Let us explore the story behind this number and unveil the mystery of Bitcoin price fluctuations.

The story behind the number

As an encrypted digital currency, Bitcoin has set off a revolution in the financial field. Its price fluctuations have always attracted much attention, and investors have tried to capture every clue of value. However, data shows that the probability of Bitcoin breaking through 10,000 yuan in June is only 16%. This figure makes people wonder what kind of rules and logic are hidden behind the price?

Market analysis and investment strategy

For investors, it is crucial to understand the rules of Bitcoin price fluctuations. According to historical data and market trend analysis, it can be found that the fluctuation of Bitcoin prices is affected by many factors, including the global economic situation, political events, market supply and demand, etc. Therefore, when formulating investment strategies, it is necessary to consider various factors comprehensively and make rational decisions.

Technical analysis and market forecast

In addition to fundamental analysis, technical analysis also plays a vital role in predicting Bitcoin prices. Through technical means such as chart analysis and trend line observation, the market trend can be grasped more accurately, providing a reference for investment decisions. However, technical analysis is not absolutely accurate, and investors need to be cautious and avoid blindly following the trend.

Risks and opportunities coexist

The Bitcoin market is full of challenges where risks and opportunities coexist. While investors are chasing high returns, they also bear huge risks. Therefore, when investing in Bitcoin, it is important to act cautiously, avoid risks, and seize opportunities.

Emotions and market fluctuations

Market fluctuations are often greatly affected by emotions. Investors' panic and greed often exacerbate market fluctuations and lead to drastic price fluctuations. Therefore, in the investment process, it is very important to remain calm and rational and not be affected by emotions.

Future Outlook and Investment Advice

With the continuous development of the Bitcoin market, investors need to remain vigilant, continue to learn and improve their investment capabilities. At the same time, they should also pay attention to risk control, avoid excessive speculation and blindly follow the trend. Only by moving forward on the road of rational investment can we be invincible in the digital currency market.

The probability of Bitcoin price breaking through 10,000 yuan is only 16%, and this number contains infinite investment wisdom and market laws. Let us delve deeper together to uncover the truth behind Bitcoin price fluctuations, seize investment opportunities, and meet future challenges!

The four most famous international exchanges:

Binance INTL	OKX INTL	Gate.io INTL	Huobi INTL
China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL

Note: The above exchange logo is the official website registration link, and the text is the APP download link.

Data shows that the probability of Bitcoin price breaking 10,000 by June is only 16%! As Bitcoin continues to fluctuate sharply, people tend to look for more reliable "value discovery" logic from many interpretations. As a data-based research institution, Arcane
Research also analyzed the "recovery" of Bitcoin since the "3.12" crash from the aspects of macroeconomics, transactions and on-chain data, and found the next possible "rising point". Its core views are as follows:

After rising by 70%, coin holders still cannot get rid of "extreme fear";

The reverse spread between futures and spot indicates a bearish market;

The volatility of the currency price has reached the annual peak and will continue;

BTC turnover rate has escaped the trough, which may bring the possibility of rising;

Forecast: The probability of BTC rising above 10,000 US dollars in June is only 16%.

01 After rising by 70%, coin holders are still "extremely afraid"

We often hear about the daily fear and greed index, but I am afraid that only by looking at it over a longer period of time can we truly understand the meaning of this data.

The following figure shows the fear and greed index of Bitcoin over the past year. The vertical axis represents from extreme fear to extreme greed from bottom to top.

Source: Alternative

As can be seen from the figure, there have been only two "extreme fears" in the past year. The first occurred in early August last year, when Bitcoin soared and plummeted, and the market experienced extremely short-term extreme fear.

The second time was the last two weeks of the "3.12" crash. Although the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 70% from the lowest point, it has not fundamentally reversed the confidence of the market. The fear and greed index in the past two weeks was 12 and 14 respectively. It is still in extreme fear.

Such a long period of panic also occurred in December 2018. At that time, Bitcoin halved in one month and fell all the way to the bottom range of $3,200. This indirectly shows that for current market participants, Bitcoin of $3,800-6,000 may be the lowest value of their psychological expectations.

Odaily Planet Daily Note: The threshold of the panic index is 0-100. The influencing factors include: volatility (25%), market trading volume (25%), social media popularity (15%), market research (15%), the proportion of Bitcoin in the entire market (10%) and Google hot word analysis (10%).

02 The reverse spread between futures and spot indicates a bearish market

The "3.12" crash brought two significant changes to the Bitcoin futures market: one is the plunge in trading volume; the other is the abnormal phenomenon that the transaction price of futures is lower than its underlying spot.

Skew data shows that the open interest of the XBT/USD (Bitcoin) perpetual contract on the BitMEX platform fell to 55,000 BTC, a new low in 18 months. According to TokenAnalyst data, the number of Bitcoins withdrawn from BitMEX in the past two weeks exceeded the number of Bitcoins deposited, resulting in a net outflow of 67,000 Bitcoins from the platform.

Futures trading volume reflects the sluggish trading atmosphere in the contract market and the temporary rest of the market main force; in the traditional stock market, the reverse spread of stock index futures relative to the spot index is a signal of a bearish stock market. Therefore, Arcane Research said that this is not necessarily a good sign for Bitcoin. Before the plunge, the BTC futures prices in June and September were higher than the spot prices, but now it is the other way around. However, such a market is not lacking in arbitrage opportunities. Arcane Research pointed out that this is good news for bulls who want to prepare for a position, which means that they can relatively easily return to the premium of the futures price. 03 The volatility of the currency price has reached the annual peak and will continue. One of the main reasons for the departure of contract players is the current high volatility of Bitcoin. According to the data from Cryptowat.ch, the 30-day volatility of Bitcoin prices has reached the highest level in a year, currently exceeding 9%. The higher the volatility, the greater the uncertainty of asset returns. Arcane Research pointed out that under the systemic risk of global economic turmoil, the price trend of Bitcoin will still be difficult to stabilize in the future, so it is recommended that market participants should act with caution. Source: cryptowat.ch

04 BTC turnover rate escapes the trough, may bring up the possibility

Arcane
Research also introduced us to a less common but interesting indicator: Velocity (Bitcoin network rate), the data comes from Bytetree, an institution that monitors this indicator for a long time.

Bitcoin network rate refers to the speed of Bitcoin turnover, with an observation period of 12 weeks, and the unit is 0-2000%. If the Bitcoin rate is 1000% in 12 weeks, it means that Bitcoin circulates 10 times a year; a high network rate means that Bitcoin circulates faster and the market situation is better.

According to Bytetree statistics, since 2013, there have been only five times when the rate was lower than 600% of the "historical danger level", which were March 30, 2014, August 1, 2018, March 13, 2019, and August 20, 2019-last week.

Usually, low rates often lead to price declines. Fortunately, just last week, we can see that Bitcoin has come out of the low rate of 600%. Arcane Research believes that this may be a bullish signal, indicating that Bitcoin is moving in large quantities and playing a positive role in financing.

05 Prediction: The probability of BTC breaking 10,000 in June is only 16%?

According to Skew markets, on March 29, the Put/Call ratio of Bitcoin option contracts reached 1.10. This is the highest level since March 13.

In traditional financial markets, if the Put/Call ratio is higher than the range of 0.7-1, it indicates that there is a lot of short pressure because traders are more likely to sell rather than buy. There may be many reasons for this selling pressure, the most important of which is the expectation of falling prices.

Before the "3.12" crash, this ratio once soared to 1.39. It was the highest level in the past 3 months; two days after reaching 1.39, the spot price of Bitcoin fell from US$7,800 to below US$4,000. At the same time, Bitcoin's Put/Call ratio also fell below 1.08.

So far, this ratio has risen back to 1.10. This may mean that Bitcoin's price outlook is not optimistic.

According to Skew data, the prices of various options platforms show that by the end of June 2020, the probability of BTC breaking through $10,000 is only 16%, while the probability of being below $5,000 is as high as 80%.

However, it is difficult to say that using option prices to predict the underlying price works in traditional financial markets, not to mention the digital currency market where the financial derivatives market is not yet mature. So, let's just laugh at this data.