Bull market restarted? Can Bitcoin break through $50,000? 

In recent years, the volatility of Bitcoin has attracted the attention of countless investors, especially after a period of downturn, the recent trend of continuous rise in Bitcoin prices has attracted widespread attention. After eight consecutive days of rise, many people began to wonder: Is the bull market restarted? And what kind of stimulation will the breakthrough of the $50,000 mark have on the entry of institutional investors? This article will explore this issue in depth from multiple angles, analyzing the trend of the Bitcoin market, potential influencing factors, and the changes in the mentality of institutional investors.

First, looking back at the historical trend of Bitcoin, it is not difficult to find that its market price has always been full of fluctuations. Since its advent in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced several alternations between bull and bear markets. Whenever market sentiment is high, investors flock in and push up prices; when market confidence is insufficient, prices will fall rapidly. It is in this highly volatile environment that many investors try to find opportunities to make profits in the short term. The recent continuous rise is a reflection of the recovery of market sentiment.

When analyzing the trend of Bitcoin prices, we must pay attention to the fundamental factors of the market. The supply of Bitcoin is limited, which means that when demand increases, prices tend to rise accordingly. According to data, the 2020 Bitcoin halving event reduced the number of newly issued Bitcoins by half, further exacerbating the scarcity of the market. As more and more institutional investors begin to pay attention to Bitcoin, this supply and demand relationship will become more obvious. Especially against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" has become increasingly prominent.

In addition, technical analysis is also an important tool for us to understand Bitcoin price trends. Many traders use chart analysis to find buy and sell signals. The recent rise in Bitcoin prices may be closely related to the strong signals of technical indicators. For example, indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average (MA) show signs of a bull market. Guided by technical analysis, investors have entered the market one after another, further pushing up the price of Bitcoin. This trend not only reflects the confidence of market participants, but also lays the foundation for subsequent increases.

In this context, breaking through the psychological barrier of $50,000 is particularly important. Historically, many assets have experienced significant trading reactions when they hit key prices. For Bitcoin, $50,000 is not only an important psychological price, but also a key resistance level on the technical side. Many traders and institutional investors see it as a signal to enter or increase their positions. Therefore, once Bitcoin successfully breaks through this barrier, it may trigger more buying and form a "self-fulfilling" upward cycle.

From the perspective of institutional investors, market changes are also worth paying attention to. In recent years, more and more institutions have begun to include Bitcoin in their investment portfolios. For example, the entry of well-known companies such as Tesla and MicroStrategy has become an important driving force in the Bitcoin market. The participation of these institutions has not only increased the market recognition of Bitcoin, but also provided confidence for other investors. As the price of Bitcoin rises, institutional investors may increase their investment and further promote the upward movement of the market.

However, behind the market's optimism, there is also uncertainty. Although the recent rise is exciting, we must remain vigilant. The Bitcoin market is still affected by regulatory policies, market sentiment and technical factors. For example, recent changes in regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies in some countries may have a short-term impact on the market. In addition, the price volatility of Bitcoin also means the uncertainty of investment risks. While investors are chasing profits, they must also carefully assess the risks.

At the investment psychology level, many investors tend to have a "follow the trend" mentality in the bull market. As the price of Bitcoin rises, more retail investors may join the market and try to share this wealth feast. However, the market sentiment is often changing rapidly, and investors need to remain rational and avoid losses caused by blindly following the trend. Past historical lessons tell us that overly optimistic market sentiment sometimes leads to bubbles. Therefore, it is particularly important to analyze the market rationally and formulate reasonable investment strategies.

When summarizing the current situation of the Bitcoin market, we can also look to the future. With the continuous advancement of technology and the diversification of market participants, the application scenarios of Bitcoin will be further expanded. For example, more and more merchants are beginning to accept Bitcoin as a means of payment, which will help improve the liquidity and use value of Bitcoin. In addition, the development of blockchain technology also provides guarantees for the security and transparency of Bitcoin. These factors will jointly promote the maturity of the Bitcoin market and bring more opportunities to investors.

Of course, the future market is still full of challenges. With the popularity of Bitcoin, market competition will become more intense. Other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Ripple are also rising, which may have an impact on Bitcoin's market share. In addition, changes in regulatory policies will also have a profound impact on the market, and investors need to pay close attention to relevant dynamics in order to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.

In short, the continuous rise of Bitcoin has undoubtedly injected new vitality into the market, and breaking through the $50,000 mark will be a key milestone. The entry of institutional investors will further promote the prosperity of the market, but we must also be vigilant about potential risks. As investors, we should look at market changes rationally, deeply analyze various influencing factors, and formulate reasonable investment strategies in order to seize opportunities and realize wealth appreciation in this wave of cryptocurrency. The future market will be a stage full of opportunities and challenges. Only by continuous learning and adaptation can we remain invincible in this revolution of the digital age.

The four most famous international exchanges:

Binance INTL	OKX INTL	Gate.io INTL	Huobi INTL
China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL

Note: The above exchange logo is the official website registration link, and the text is the APP download link.

According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin has accumulated an increase of more than 30% in the past 7 days, driving the overall cryptocurrency market higher. However, some industry insiders believe that only when Bitcoin breaks through $50,000 again will it be attractive enough to stimulate institutions to get rid of the wait-and-see state.

Since the 21st, Bitcoin has maintained an upward trend for as many as 8 days, which seems to be a sign of a bull market.

Under the leadership of Bitcoin, many competing coins have also seen significant gains.

In the past week, Ethereum (ETH) has risen by more than 28.3%, approaching $2,300; Binance Coin (BNB) has risen by more than 18.3%, to $313.12; Ripple (XRP), Polkadot (DOT), Uniswap (UNI), etc. have all risen by more than 30%.

Institutional trends are key

Pankaj Balani, CEO of Delta Exchange, said: "Looking ahead, we expect Bitcoin to continue to rise and test the upper limit of the trading range of $30,000 to $42,000. We believe that, led by Ethereum, altcoins will also show similar trends. ... However, only when Bitcoin breaks through $50,000 can it attract new funds and mark a larger market change."

Institutional attitudes are naturally the focus of market attention as the bull market restarts. Some analysts expect Bitcoin to rise further as institutional investors rediscover the value of the cryptocurrency market.

Elie LeRest, partner of cryptocurrency hedge fund ExoAlpha, pointed out: "As institutional investors have been on the sidelines, waiting for an opportunity to build a position, it is expected that this week's market trend will continue."

According to Skew data, the current short squeeze has triggered the most active market trading volume this season, with Monday's (26) single-day trading volume far exceeding the average trading volume in the past 30 days by four times.

ElieLeRest said that such a dramatic change was driven by large buyers, and these buyers are generally institutional investors who have been waiting for a more directional trend since the Bitcoin crash at the end of May.

It is worth mentioning that according to Glassnode data, more than 2.1 million Bitcoins have returned to profitability due to the Bitcoin rebound.
Glassnode also said that this means that about 11.2% of the total circulation of Bitcoin was bought in the range of 29,000 to 38,000 US dollars.

There is still a possibility of a retracement

Although the outlook is no longer so pessimistic, Bitcoin has not completely escaped the potential bear market.

The rise in the past week has narrowed the decline of Bitcoin from its high point to about 40%. Generally speaking, a decline of more than 50% in Bitcoin symbolizes the beginning of a bear market, and similar trends have occurred in 2014 and 2017-18.

The sharp rebound in the past few days shows that Bitcoin's medium-term trend is stabilizing. However, the retracement may still last longer, and the decline may further expand to 70-80%, just like the previous bear market trough.

That said, the derivatives market has released positive signals.

Skew data shows that Bitcoin's one-month put-call skew has shrunk significantly from 13% last week to 2%. This indicator mainly measures the cost difference between put options and call options. In addition, the one-week put-call skew has also dropped from 13% to 5%.

The reduction in put-call skew means that investors have reduced the opportunity to seek hedging in the falling market, which means that more investors expect that prices will not fall further.

In fact, according to ArcaneResearch, after Bitcoin rose above $40,000 again on Monday, the futures premium on some unregulated exchanges also rebounded to 10%. The futures premium means bullishness, but since April, the bullish sentiment has weakened, and the futures premium has narrowed significantly from the extreme of 50% at that time.

However, ArcaneResearch also pointed out that since the futures premiums appearing in different exchanges are different, it also shows that the attitude of institutional investors is still quite cautious.