The Bitcoin market has always been the focus of investors. Recent data shows that there are few bullish signals, which has brought certain confusion and challenges to investors. In this article, we will explore the backtesting of Bitcoin from different angles, analyze the market trend, and provide investors with some references for thinking and decision-making.

As a cryptographic digital currency, Bitcoin has large price fluctuations and high investment risks. Recent data show that the backtesting of Bitcoin is not optimistic, and there are few bullish signals, which means that there are fewer buy signals in the market, and investors need to make decisions more cautiously.

In the past period of time, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated violently, and investors have paid attention to market trends, hoping to seize investment opportunities. However, data shows that bullish signals are rare, which has sounded the alarm for investors and requires more prudent treatment of investment risks.

From historical data, Bitcoin prices fluctuate greatly, and investors often face greater market risks. In the current situation where there are few bullish signals, investors need to choose investment opportunities more carefully to avoid blindly following the trend and falling into uncontrollable risks.

In such a market environment, investors should remain calm, think rationally, and not be affected by short-term market fluctuations. Although there are few bullish signals, there are still investment opportunities. The key is to grasp the market rhythm and make wise investment decisions.

In addition to paying attention to market trends, investors should also strengthen their research on Bitcoin fundamentals and understand the technical support and market demand behind it. Only by fully grasping market information can we better grasp investment opportunities and avoid risks.

When investing in Bitcoin, in addition to paying attention to price fluctuations, we should also pay attention to risk control and asset allocation. Reasonable diversification of investment portfolios and reducing the risks brought by single assets are one of the strategies that investors should pay attention to.

In general, Bitcoin's backtest knife fell into the area, and bullish signals were scarce, which brought certain challenges and opportunities to investors. In the investment process, investors should remain rational and cautious, not be affected by short-term market fluctuations, and make wise investment decisions to be invincible in the market.

The four most famous international exchanges:

Binance INTL	OKX INTL	Gate.io INTL	Huobi INTL
China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL

Note: The above exchange logo is the official website registration link, and the text is the APP download link.

Bitcoin traders believe that Bitcoin must re-enter $43,600 to resume its bullish trend, however, futures and options data show signs of trouble.

The old adage in the market is not to fight the trend and never catch a falling knife. Traders should not try to predict trend reversals or try to flatten their costs when they are losing money. From the chart below, it is difficult for anyone to rationalize that Bitcoin will go long.

Over the past 25 trading days, Bitcoin has abruptly stopped every attempt to break out of the downward channel. Curiously, the trend shows that the price of the coin will be below $40,000 in mid-October, which is exactly the deadline for the SEC to make a final decision on the Bitcoin ETF applications of ProShares and Invesco on October 18 and 19 respectively.

According to CoinShares, the recent price action triggered a sixth consecutive week of inflows from institutional investors, with nearly $100 million flowing into the cryptocurrency market between September 20 and 24.

Veteran traders claim that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $43,600 support level to resume the bullish trend. The on-chain data chart also shows a lot of accumulated momentum.

Perpetual Futures Show Traders Neutral to Short

To gauge investor sentiment, one should analyze the funding rates of perpetual contracts, as these are the preferred instruments for retail traders. Perpetual futures (inverse swap contracts) trade very close to normal spot trading, unlike monthly contracts.

When more leverage is needed, the funding rate is automatically charged to long buyers every hour, and when the situation reverses, that is, short sellers are over-leveraged, the funding rate turns negative and they need to pay interest.

The neutral situation involves leveraged longs paying a small fee, with the rate ranging from about 0% to 0.03% every eight hours, equivalent to a weekly rate of 0.6%. However, the above chart shows a slight downward trend since September 13, when the funding rate was last seen above 0.03%.

The call-call volume ratio favors bulls, but the trend has changed

Unlike futures contracts, options come in two varieties: call options, which allow the buyer to buy Bitcoin at a fixed price on the expiration date, and are usually used for neutral carry trades or long strategies; and put options, which are usually used to protect investors from falling prices.

Next, we need to compare the open interest of call options and put options.

The call-call ratio indicator for Bitcoin shows that it bottomed out at 0.47 on August 29, reflecting 50,000 Bitcoins in protective puts compared to 104,000 Bitcoins in calls. However, after the monthly contract expired on September 24, the call-call ratio narrowed as operations using neutral short put contracts gained momentum.

According to the Bitcoin futures and options market, it is still too early to describe the market situation as a bearish period, but derivative indicators have not shown any bullish signals in the past two weeks. Obviously, bulls are pinning their hopes on the deadline for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF as a breakthrough force in the current market trend structure.