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According to Bitcoinist on March 6, Adaptive Capital partner and on-chain analysis expert Willy
Woo said that according to his model, the reasonable predicted price of Bitcoin will reach $135,000. However, if the price of Bitcoin experiences a major trend reversal, such as a drop to $1,000, he can also test who is the "hardcore Bitcoin miner who can continue to operate and remain in the end."

(Image source: pixabay)

Testing the hardcore Bitcoin miners who remain in the end

In the latest episode of "The Keiser Report", Bitcoin believer and host Max Keiser welcomed new guest Willy
Woo. In addition to making extremely optimistic predictions about the price of the currency, Willy Woo also gave his views on the worst case scenario we may encounter. Willy
Woo reminded his fans to treat predictions about the price of the currency as "guesses" rather than deterministic events.

My area of expertise is on-chain analysis, such as predicting medium-term price trends.

Although everyone wants to hope that the predicted price of the currency will come true, it is best to treat it as just a guess. Models that predicted success before may not work again.

\- Willy Woo March 5, 2020

If the price of Bitcoin falls to $1,000 per coin, he said, "we will start testing the last hardcore miners who can continue to operate." He also said that by then, the Bitcoin network will be very fragile and vulnerable to attack.

If the price of the coin falls to a terrible level and there are only a few miners left in the Bitcoin network, it will become very cheap for a country or institution to attack it when Bitcoin does not have enough hash rate to support it. When the price of the coin is too low, Bitcoin cannot resist the attack of a powerful opponent.

However, Willy Woo is still bullish on Bitcoin

In addition to talking about this unimaginable pessimistic outlook, Keiser, the promoter of the eternal bull market, and Willy Woo, an analyst, believe that Bitcoin will win. Willy
Woo explained how he uses the capital flow on the ledger to judge the market direction.

He also said that through on-chain analysis, he can observe whether miners are selling coins, the movement of funds in the market, and other indicators to understand the price trend of the coin. Keiser said Willy
Woo has made many accurate judgments.

In fact, Willy Woo's tweet was very optimistic, saying that he believed that Bitcoin's adjustment period was over and it was now a bull market.

This rise was a real breakthrough. Fundamental analysis shows that active investment activity supports this $10,000 breakthrough.

\- Willy Woo February 9, 2020

So, what does Willy Woo think about Bitcoin's price trend in the next 6 months, 9 months to a year? He told Keiser that he didn't know how high the price would go, but he could judge the direction. He said:

There are many ways to predict the top of the price. For example, you can use 35 times the average price of Bitcoin in the accumulation phase to predict the highest price of the coin. In the 10-year history of Bitcoin, every top price is like this.

When Keiser asked Willy Woo to predict the top price, the latter said:

Remember that the bull market may last about four years, and the best guess is that the price will be above $100,000. I think a reasonable prediction is to reach $135,000.

Bitcoin's digital scarcity makes it "more perfect than gold"

In addition, the two discussed the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which will cut mining rewards in half. Willy Woo said:

This halving is important, Bitcoin's inflation rate will be lower than gold's inflation rate. Bitcoin will embody more perfect digital scarcity. Gold is actually not scarce. We can launch a few more rockets and mine on asteroids to get a lot of gold. From the perspective of mathematical game theory, Bitcoin is absolutely scarce. Someone will find a way to mine more gold, and then the price of gold will plummet.

Keiser asked, as people begin to spend Bitcoin, will we see Bitcoin transform from a means of value storage to a medium of exchange in the future? Willy Woo replied:

If I can buy a house with one Bitcoin, then I will definitely buy it.

Willy Woo believes that the desire for one coin and one villa will definitely come true. However, he reiterated that this vision will not be realized in the short term. Before it can be realized, the market value of Bitcoin needs to become large enough.

Currently, Bitcoin's market cap is less than one-sixth of $1 trillion, while the total value of fiat currencies in circulation is $90 trillion, and real estate is $220 trillion.

Keiser added that once Bitcoin's market cap surpasses that of gold, which is worth $7-8 trillion, the price of each Bitcoin will be in the $400,000 range. Willy Woo said:

To get there, I think we need to wait seven to ten years.

Willy Woo reiterated that accurate price predictions for any speculative asset are impossible and his analysis should not be considered investment advice.

Bitcoin's price could soar to $135,000, but it could also fall to $1,000. If you want to buy Bitcoin, you still have to make your own judgment.