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As Bitcoin approaches the $6,500 support level, some of the most prominent analysts in the industry believe that the market bottom could be near, as it was a year ago. After reaching an all-time high of $19,890 on December 17, 2017, Bitcoin experienced a steep bear market. The flagship cryptocurrency saw its price plummet by more than 80% throughout 2018. However, on December 15 of that year, BTC hit a low of $3,215, marking the bottom of the bear market.

After the downtrend ended, the pioneer cryptocurrency skyrocketed by nearly 330%. Bitcoin surged to a high of nearly $14,000 on June 26. Since then, the cryptocurrency has entered a correction phase, and its price has fallen by more than 50%. Moreover, it is now hovering around $
6,700.

BTC/USD via TradingView

Under the concept of seasonal cycles, December seems to be of great significance to Bitcoin’s trend. As mentioned above, the cryptocurrency hit an all-time high in December 2017 and a market bottom in December 2018. If seasonality is indeed a key factor in BTC’s market cycles, will history repeat itself?

Market bottoming signs

Based on the 2-year moving average (MA) multiplier indicator, financial analyst and swing trader Sawcruhteez
argues that when Bitcoin falls below the 2-year MA, it enters an “accumulation” phase. This is similar to the accumulation zone that BTC experienced in 2018 after falling below $5,600.

Swift, the creator of the 2-year MA multiplier indicator, insists:

“Buying Bitcoin when the price falls below the 2-year MA has historically generated excess returns.”

Bitcoin 2-year MA multiplier. Source: Survey Bitcoin

Similarly, Peter Brandt, a 45-year trader, says that Bitcoin’s price action has been contained within a descending parallel channel after peaking at nearly $14,000 on June 26.

Since then, every time the pioneer cryptocurrency reaches the bottom of the channel, it bounces back to the middle or top. However, when it reaches the top of the channel, it retreats back to the middle or bottom.

Brandt believes that a bottom is “imminent” as Bitcoin gets closer to the lower boundary of a multi-month descending parallel channel. BTC could bounce from this area and break out of the channel to the upside.

Brandt said such a bullish impulse would trigger a new parabolic phase, with Bitcoin “attacking” the 2017 all-time high and decisively “segmenting.”

Bitcoin trading within a descending parallel channel. Source: Peter Brandt

In addition, popular on-chain indicator analyst Willy Woo noted on Dec. 7 that bulls could have the upper hand again based on Bitcoin network usage.

Woo stated:

“On-chain momentum is moving into bullish [territory]. A bottom is most likely in sight, and any [downward] dip is just a wick on the macro.”

Bitcoin Bullish Momentum. Source: Hu Wei

Moving Forward

Despite the bullish outlooks presented by these technical analysts, there are multiple bearish signs that suggest Bitcoin could be aiming for lower lows. If history does repeat itself and BTC performs like it did in December 2018, the 150-week moving average could break.

BTC/USD via TradingView

A close below this support level (around $6,500) would trigger a further decline. The next support level is the 200-week moving average, which hovers around $5,000.

In his latest podcast, Tone Vays, former vice president of JP Morgan Chase, said that he is “very confident” that the price of BTC will fall below $6,500. Now, it remains to be seen whether there is enough demand to meet this bearish move and allow Bitcoin to finally bottom.