Bitcoin halving, this highly publicized event has once again pushed the cryptocurrency market to the forefront. As the 400-day countdown to Bitcoin’s halving approaches, people are beginning to discuss the bottom time of the market before each halving. This is not only a review of historical data, but also a guess and prediction of future trends. In this article, we will delve into the phenomenon of Bitcoin halving, analyze the time points at the market bottom before previous halvings, and reveal to you the impact of Bitcoin halving on the market and possible investment opportunities.

Bitcoin halving is an institutional change aimed at controlling the growth rate of the total supply of Bitcoin. Whenever mining rewards are halved, the total market supply also decreases. This process usually causes market fluctuations and changes, and paying attention to the time of the market bottom before each halving can provide investors with a certain reference basis.

Historical data shows that in the two Bitcoin halving events, the market bottom time showed certain regularity. Before the first halving, the market bottom time was about one year to one and a half years before the halving, while before the second halving, the market bottom time was advanced to about 6 months before the halving. This gradually advancing trend has triggered speculation and discussion about the time for the market bottom before this halving.

In the past several halving events, the market bottom time was often accompanied by certain market fluctuations and emotional fluctuations. Investors can often capture more favorable buying opportunities at the bottom of the market, thereby obtaining greater profits when the price of Bitcoin rises. Therefore, it is crucial for investors to accurately grasp the market bottom time before each halving.

In addition to the discussion of the market bottom time, the Bitcoin halving may also have a significant impact on the overall market pattern and investment strategies. On the one hand, the halving event may trigger short-term market fluctuations, and investors need to be cautious in dealing with market risks; on the other hand, the reduced supply of Bitcoin after the halving may drive up prices and bring more benefits to holders.

In the current increasingly fierce competition in the cryptocurrency market, the Bitcoin halving event has become the focus of investors' attention. The discussion of the market bottom time before each halving can not only help investors better grasp the market rhythm, but also provide them with more investment opportunities and possibilities.

In general, the countdown to Bitcoin halving is 400 days, and the discussion of the market bottom time before each halving is a topic worthy of attention and in-depth research. Through the analysis of historical data and observation of market trends, investors can better plan their investment strategies, seize market opportunities, and achieve wealth appreciation. In an uncertain market environment, understanding and grasping the Bitcoin halving event will become the key for investors to obtain returns. May you overcome all obstacles and gain generous rewards in the wave of Bitcoin halving.

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After the fourth Bitcoin halving occurs, the existing block reward will be further cut in half to 3.125 BTC. According to the halving countdown data provided, it is expected to occur in early April 2024 (the time fluctuates according to the mining generation speed, this is an initial estimate).

 Has the starting point for Bitcoin’s rise been reached? 

Market investors generally expect that the supply of new Bitcoins will be reduced by half, which will prompt an increase in BTC prices.

According to Pantera, one of the largest capitals in the cryptocurrency field
Capital released a report at the end of last year: the typical bottom occurs about 15 months before the halving; and on average it peaks 15 months after the halving, and the entire process takes about 2.6 years to see the full impact.

Pantera Capital said that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin's price should bottom out at the end of December 2022 and see the currency price continue to rebound into the beginning of the second quarter of 2024, and then see a stronger rise after the actual halving occurs. At least judging from the current currency price trend, there is indeed a strong rebound starting from the beginning of this year.

 Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Ratio Model (S2F) Forecast

Pantera Capital further stated using the stock-to-flow (S2F) model made famous by anonymous analyst PlanB:

   The second halving in 2016 had a 32% impact on the price increase of the first time, and the BTC price reached a maximum of $19,497.

   The third halving in 2020 will have a 23% impact on price increases, with the BTC price reaching a maximum of $19,497.

   Finally, it predicts that the fourth halving will occur on April 20, 2024. Since most Bitcoin is now in circulation, the new supply drops by almost exactly half that amount. If historical trends are followed, Bitcoin will rise to $36,000 before the halving, and then rise to a maximum of $149,000.

The S2F model divides the amount of resources retained in reserves by the annual production quantity, calculates the stock-to-flow ratio, and uses this to estimate prices.

 Caution

However, it is important to note that the model has already been significantly inaccurate in its predictions in 2022, and PlanB has been criticized for this (he once predicted that BTC will reach the $100,000 mark by the end of 2021), and was even criticized by the co-founder of Ethereum. Vitalik
Buterin (V God) ridiculed in June last year, saying that the illusion brought to investors by this model is harmful.

“Stock-to-
The flow doesn't look good right now. I know it's rude to gloat, but I think this financial model gives everyone a false sense of certainty that the numbers will keep going up is harmful, and all the ridicule the model gets is well deserved. Remember who has supported S2F in the past and who still dismissed S2F even when it accurately predicted trends. "

In addition, the current tightening monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve is still there and the severe inflation has not been completely alleviated. Whether it will drag down the growth of Bitcoin deserves our continued attention.