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Coin Circle (120bTC.coM): In early March last year, a series of banks such as Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank and the second largest crypto-friendly bank Signature Bank broke out in crisis, once again reminding people of the fragility of the centralized financial system. The stock price of New York Community Bank, which took over the business of Signature Bank, plummeted by nearly 40% yesterday (31st) after announcing a loss of up to $252 million in the fourth quarter of last year, shocking the market and worrying about the possibility of a repeat of the banking crisis.

During the banking crisis last year, the price of Bitcoin achieved a breakthrough in March, soaring 23% from $19,549 to over $29,000. The reason behind this rise is not only the contrast between the decentralized spirit of Bitcoin and the fragility of centralized finance highlighted by the collapse of traditional banks, but also the rapid rescue action of the US government has brought confidence to investors. For example, at that time, the Treasury Department provided up to $25 billion to support the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), enabling banks to obtain more loans than in the past.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin may repeat the trend of March last year

Now, the latest crisis of New York Community Bank has also attracted the attention of Arthur
Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX. He expects that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will soon launch financial rescue measures, which may cause the price of Bitcoin to repeat the trend of March last year. His prediction is based on the following points:

 The main reason for the unexpected loss announced by New York Community Bank is that the loan loss reserve has increased tenfold than expected, which shows that the problems of the banking system have not been solved.

 The yields of 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen sharply, indicating that the market expects some new relief measures to solve the problem.

 The existing short-term loan mechanisms (including BTFP and Discount Window) provided by the Federal Reserve to banks are of no help. He pointed out that it will not help because commercial real estate (CRE) and multi-family residential loans are not accepted as suitable collateral.

Finally, Hayes concluded: Bitcoin prices are expected to fall slightly, but if New York Community Bank and other banks are sold off before the weekend, the government may quickly launch a new rescue plan. By then, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise, just like the price trend in March 2023.

Hayes has sold put options

On the 22nd, Arthur
Hayes predicted that the price of Bitcoin would fall below $40,000, and therefore bought some $35,000 put options expiring on March 29. Although Bitcoin did fall below $40,000 at one point, it did not reach the $35,000 level predicted by Hayes. In this regard, a netizen asked: "Do you still expect BTC to plummet to $30-35K before March, as you said, a small financial crisis, and then rise again?"

Hayes replied and revealed his operation: It is doubtful whether it can reach $35,000. I have sold my put options and am now pressing the buy button, waiting for junk coins worth investing in my monitoring range.