The four most famous international exchanges:

Binance INTL	OKX INTL	Gate.io INTL	Huobi INTL
China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL	China Line　APP DL

Note: The above exchange logo is the official website registration link, and the text is the APP download link.

Analysts point out that Bitcoin's price rises and falls coincide with the settlement dates of CME Bitcoin futures contracts. This phenomenon may indicate market manipulation.

CME's Impact on Bitcoin

CME's Bitcoin futures contracts are hailed as a bridge between institutional and retail investors. Growing volumes support this narrative. CME's average daily contract volume is up 132% from last year, a sign of Wall Street's interest. Recently, CME set a new volume record in May, with $1.3 billion in notional value traded in a single day.

However, some analysts believe that futures contracts are used to manipulate the cryptocurrency market.

According to Luke Martin, host of the Coinist podcast, there is a correlation between the settlement date of CME Bitcoin futures contracts and Bitcoin prices.

Martin found in July that Bitcoin plunged 12.8% two weeks before the CME contract expired, and fell another 6.9% the week before expiration. After the contract settled on July 26, BTC rose 5.2% in the week after and the two weeks after, a still-significant gain of about 22%.

Martin added that a similar situation occurred last month. Two weeks before CME futures expiration, Bitcoin fell 7.9% and dropped 6% a week later. Once the futures contracts settled on August 30, BTC surged 11.4% in the week following the event and remained 9.9% higher two weeks later.

Market Manipulation

Even if CME Bitcoin contract settlements are not a perfect predictor of Bitcoin price action, high volatility around settlement dates shows signs of market manipulation. In fact, a new report authored by Arcane
Research found that Bitcoin fell 75% of the time before CME futures contracts settled.

The study showed that since January 2018, Bitcoin has tended to fall by an average of 2.27% as monthly settlements approached. When adjusting for “large outliers,” the decline rate was 1.99%.

Source: Arcane Crypto

“Statistically speaking, it is unlikely that the price drop before CME settlements is caused by coincidence alone,” wrote Bendik Norheim Schei, an analyst at Arcane Research.

Schei insisted that the numbers support the hypothesis that Bitcoin is manipulated before CME futures expiration dates. However, it does not take into account other factors that may explain this pattern.

Notably, BTC fell below $8,000 just hours before CME Bitcoin futures were set to expire on September 27.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

The CME settlement date appears to coincide with a key point in Bitcoin’s trend. BTC recently broke below the lower support of a descending triangle pattern that has been forming since BTC peaked at nearly $14,000 on June 26.

This bearish pattern predicts a 31.5% price drop that could take Bitcoin to $6,500. This target is determined by measuring the height from the upper trendline to the lower trendline of the descending triangle.

So far, BTC has plunged 17.93% from the breakout point of the bearish pattern ($9,500) to a low of $7,796.

According to the Fibonacci retracement indicator (measured from the Dec. 15, 2018 low of $3,130 to the June 26 high of $13,870), Bitcoin has fallen below the 50% retracement level. Now, it may drop to test the next support level near the 61.8 or 65% Fibonacci retracement area. This area is considered the “golden” retracement zone due to the higher probability of a rebound, which is also where the target of the descending triangle lies.

Nonetheless, if Bitcoin manages to regain the $8,500 support level (50% Fibonacci), it could hint at a possible return to around $9,500.

Analysts point to correlation

Analysts believe that there is a correlation between the contract settlement date and the price of BTC. More than a year ago, Thomas Lee, head of Fundstrat Global Advisors

emphasized that large price movements tend to occur before the expiration of contracts. Technical analyst Josh Olszewicz explained that they were one of the main catalysts of the bear market that began in December 2017.

Not only that, the different spreads left on the CME chart when the CME’s trading hours are closed also show correlation with the price of Bitcoin. Although there are many factors that affect the price of Bitcoin, the data shows that futures contract settlements may be another indicator.