In the turbulent digital currency market, Bitcoin has always been the focus of attention. Recently, a controversial prediction has emerged in the market: Bitcoin may really want to fall to $8,500 to fill the cheese futures pit. This prediction has sparked widespread discussion and attention in the market. Let's delve into this prediction to reveal its possible impact and the reasons behind it.

 Background of Bitcoin Plunge Prediction

Bitcoin has always been the darling of the financial market, and its price fluctuations have caused excitement and anxiety among countless investors. However, the recent prediction that Bitcoin may plummet to $8,500 has shocked people. What kind of logic is hidden behind this prediction?

According to market analysts, the price point of $8,500 may be the level required to fill the cheese futures pit. Cheese futures have always been seen as a potential hole in the market, and a Bitcoin plunge to $8,500 may cause this pit to be filled and the market to rebalance. This view has caused people to think deeply and worry about the price trend of Bitcoin.

 The impact of filling cheese futures

If Bitcoin really falls to $8,500 to fill the cheese futures pit, it will have a profound impact on the digital currency market. First, this may trigger panic among investors and lead to large fluctuations in the market. Second, the plunge in Bitcoin prices may affect the trend of the entire digital currency market and trigger a chain reaction. Therefore, the move to fill cheese futures needs to be treated with caution to avoid triggering greater market turmoil.

 How should investors respond?

For investors, facing the prediction that Bitcoin may plummet to $8,500, they should remain calm and rational. First, investors should carefully assess their risk tolerance and allocate assets reasonably. Second, obtain market information in a timely manner, do a good job of risk control, and avoid blindly following the trend. Most importantly, maintain a keen observation and in-depth analysis of the market to make wise investment decisions.

 Conclusion

The prediction that Bitcoin plummeted to $8,500 has aroused heated discussions and attention in the market. Behind the filling of cheese futures are the complex changes and potential risks of the digital currency market. Investors should remain calm, respond rationally, and do a good job of risk control and asset allocation. Only in the process of continuous learning and accumulation of experience can we be invincible in the ever-changing market. I hope that every investor can seize opportunities, meet challenges, and achieve wealth growth and value creation.

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In the cryptocurrency market, traders are usually unwilling to wait "long enough" to fill the gap. In the past period of time, the trend of Bitcoin and even the entire cryptocurrency market has been elusive, as if there are not many rules to follow.

Just after Bitcoin rushed to a high of $13,800, the market quickly fell to the $9,700 range, and then after a few weeks of sideways trading, it finally broke through the $10,000 resistance level. If you use the lines from Stephen Chow's movies to describe it, it is undoubtedly "the ups and downs are too fast, it's really too exciting"!

We found that Bitcoin has been trying to break through the $11,000 resistance level in recent days, but it has repeatedly failed. Therefore, some analysts believe that Bitcoin may return to the $9,000 range. Their reason seems to be very simple: due to the spread between CME futures and spot prices, Bitcoin will continue to fall until the gap is filled before finding meaningful support.

Bitcoin price hovers in the $11,000 range due to rising selling pressure

The current price of Bitcoin around $12,000 is far below the $10,700 daily high initially set by industry analysts. If we look at Bitcoin's performance over the past week, we can see that its volatility is very obvious and the price has been constantly adjusting below $11,000. More importantly, the rising parabolic pattern formed by Bitcoin since its climb from $3,200 has been broken, which means that its price may fall further in the near future.

Cryptocurrency analyst Jonny Moe analyzed the breaking of the Bitcoin trend parabolic pattern:

What is the reasonable end of the rebound? As the second half of this year unfolds, we may see further declines in the medium or long term during this period.

In the above figure, we can see that the upward parabolic trend on the far right has been broken.

Will the price of Bitcoin continue to fall until the CME futures spread is filled?

In the article "What you think is the fluctuation of Bitcoin price is actually "filling the gap" for futures", I have analyzed that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are different from traditional stock markets. The former are open all year round and are always in trading, while CME's Bitcoin futures products are only traded five days a week: starting at 5 pm every Sunday in Central Time and ending at 4 pm every Friday. Because there is a time interval between spot trading and futures trading, there will be price differences, and these price differences need to be "filled" with spot prices.

Bitcoin trader Joe McCann
believes that in many cases, the price difference between futures prices and spot prices will continue to narrow until it gradually disappears (because of short selling), but then rebounds higher. In traditional markets, "trading experts" (humans) will do this deliberately because they usually manipulate market prices for their own interests. As long as the futures price is long enough, the price difference between it and the spot will eventually be filled. However, in the cryptocurrency market, traders are often unwilling to wait “long enough” for the gap to be filled, and this seems to be one of the reasons for the frequent fluctuations in Bitcoin prices.

For now, an important price level that traders and analysts are closely watching is $8,515, as this is the current price gap level between Bitcoin and CME futures contracts.

Another popular cryptocurrency analyst, Chonis Trading, talked about this price gap level in a recent tweet, noting that Bitcoin did not form any futures gaps this week, which means that the $8,515 futures gap is still unfilled (as shown in the figure below).

Although it is not clear whether the key psychological price level of $10,000 will become a strong support area, once it falls below this price, the door to “further significant declines” will be completely opened, and then continue to the price of the CME futures gap.

At the time of writing, according to Coinmarketcap data, the price of Bitcoin is about $10,043.25, with a 24-hour decline of 5.29%.